Abstract
This is Wave 4 of the EAFC26 series: a live-tournament application of the Wave-3 simulation engine. National starting XIs are reconstructed from EA Sports FC 26 attributes, the club-league home-field term is zeroed for neutral venues, and the goal rate is calibrated down 10% to match the modern World Cup average of 2.52 goals a game. Each match is the average of 10 simulations to suppress single-run noise. On the 12 group games already played the engine called 5/12 outcomes and the exact scoreline of 3, with probabilistic skill +13% over a no-information prior; its only systematic miss is the draw, an artifact of ranking outcome classes rather than scorelines. Projected forward across all 72 group games and a 3,000-run Monte Carlo of the 48-team knockout bracket, the model's most likely champion is Argentina at 17.07%, inside a tight four-way cluster with England, France and Brazil.
01A second stream of prediction
The EAFC26 project began by turning EA's player attributes into real-world market values, then built a match-simulation engine validated on the top-five club leagues. That engine never saw international football. The 2026 World Cup is the cleanest possible out-of-sample test: a brand-new competition, neutral venues, national teams the model was never tuned on, and results arriving in real time to grade against.
So this wave asks two things. First, when the engine is pointed at games that have already been played, how close is it? Second, run forward, what does it predict for the rest of the group stage, the bracket, and the trophy?
The discipline here is that the answer to the first question is checkable today, and the answer to the second becomes checkable over the next month.
02Method: a club engine, re-pointed
Nothing about the core engine changed. It still consumes a starting XI as a vector of EA attributes, derives an attack and a defence strength for each side, and samples a scoreline from a Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson model. Three adaptations make it tournament-appropriate:
BRIDGE
Squads to attributes
Every player in each national squad is matched to his EA FC 26 record (184 of 264 backtest XI slots matched exactly, the rest by surname-anchored and diaspora matching). Per-90 form is synthesised from attributes with the same Wave-3 coefficient bank, so a national XI is just another XI.
VENUE
No home edge
The club model's home-field term (about +15% scoring) is zeroed for neutral World Cup grounds, with a half-strength bonus kept only for the three host nations playing at home.
CALIBRATION
Tournament scoring
Club leagues run hotter than tournament football. Expected goals are scaled by 0.90 so the engine averages 2.52 goals a game, matching the modern World Cup exactly.
STABILITY
Ten-run average
Each fixture is simulated ten times and averaged, so a single freak scoreline never drives a standing or a bracket slot. The knockout ties resolve draws by a strength-weighted coin flip, the model's proxy for extra time and penalties.
The calibration was not guessed. It was set so the engine's aggregate output matches 96 years of World Cup scoring, derived in section 7.
03Backtest: the engine against games already played
Twelve group games had been played at the time of writing (Groups A through F). Each was re-simulated using the actual starting XIs both teams fielded, then compared to the real result. The probability triple is the engine's pre-game home / draw / away split.
| Date | Grp | Home | Away | H/D/A | Pick | Modal | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-11 | A | Mexico | South Africa | 65%/23%/12% | Mexico 65% | 1-0 | 2-0 | ✓ |
| 06-11 | A | South Korea | Czechia | 34%/26%/40% | Czechia 40% | 1-1 | 2-1 | ✗ |
| 06-12 | B | Canada | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 46%/26%/29% | Canada 46% | 1-1 ✓ | 1-1 | ✗ |
| 06-12 | D | United States | Paraguay | 45%/27%/28% | United States 45% | 1-1 | 4-1 | ✓ |
| 06-13 | B | Qatar | Switzerland | 21%/26%/52% | Switzerland 52% | 1-1 ✓ | 1-1 | ✗ |
| 06-13 | C | Brazil | Morocco | 52%/28%/20% | Brazil 52% | 1-0 | 1-1 | ✗ |
| 06-13 | C | Haiti | Scotland | 24%/24%/52% | Scotland 52% | 1-1 | 0-1 | ✓ |
| 06-14 | D | Australia | Turkey | 17%/26%/57% | Turkey 57% | 0-1 | 2-0 | ✗ |
| 06-14 | E | Germany | Curaçao | 74%/17%/8% | Germany 74% | 2-0 | 7-1 | ✓ |
| 06-14 | E | Ivory Coast | Ecuador | 31%/28%/41% | Ecuador 41% | 1-1 | 1-0 | ✗ |
| 06-14 | F | Netherlands | Japan | 39%/28%/32% | Netherlands 39% | 1-1 | 2-2 | ✗ |
| 06-14 | F | Sweden | Tunisia | 51%/26%/22% | Sweden 51% | 1-1 | 5-1 | ✓ |
OUTCOME
5 of 12 correct
Random is 4 of 12. On the eight games that produced a winner, the engine went 5 of 8: it reads talent gaps well (Mexico, USA, Germany 7-1, Scotland, Sweden all called).
SCORELINE
3 exact, RPS +13%
The single most-likely scoreline was exact in 3 of 12, and probabilistic skill beat a no-information prior by 13%. Log-loss 1.0107 matches the engine's league calibration.
Five of the twelve games were draws, and the engine never made a draw its single top pick, so the outcome scorecard marks them wrong. But in Canada 1-1 Bosnia and Qatar 1-1 Switzerland the engine's single most-likely scoreline was 1-1. The reason is structural: win-probability is fragmented across many scorelines (1-0, 2-0, 2-1...) while a draw concentrates on 1-1, so a 1-1 can be the likeliest exact score even when "a win" is the likeliest class. Checked against history, the engine's mean draw probability of 24.0% almost exactly matches the modern World Cup draw rate of 23.6%. The draw probabilities are well calibrated; only the argmax display is harsh.
04Group-stage projection
Forward from here, the remaining 60 group games are simulated (10-run average), combined with the 12 real results, to produce final standings. Top two in each group plus the eight best third-placed teams advance to a 32-team knockout. Teams EA under-covers (Liga MX, the Qatari and several domestic leagues) are marked with a star; read those rows with more caution.
Group A
| Team | Pts | W-D-L | GF:GA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 7 | 2-1-0 | 5:2 | W |
| South Korea | 6 | 2-0-1 | 4:3 | RU |
| Czech Republic | 4 | 1-1-1 | 4:4 | 3rd |
| South Africa ★ | 0 | 0-0-3 | 1:5 |
Group B
| Team | Pts | W-D-L | GF:GA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 7 | 2-1-0 | 5:3 | W |
| Canada | 4 | 1-1-1 | 4:3 | RU |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4 | 1-1-1 | 4:4 | 3rd |
| Qatar ★ | 1 | 0-1-2 | 2:5 |
Group C
| Team | Pts | W-D-L | GF:GA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 7 | 2-1-0 | 5:3 | W |
| Scotland | 4 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | RU |
| Morocco | 3 | 0-3-0 | 3:3 | 3rd |
| Haiti | 1 | 0-1-2 | 2:4 |
Group D
| Team | Pts | W-D-L | GF:GA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 7 | 2-1-0 | 7:3 | W |
| Turkey | 4 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | RU |
| Australia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:3 | 3rd |
| Paraguay | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:6 |
Group E
| Team | Pts | W-D-L | GF:GA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 7 | 2-1-0 | 10:3 | W |
| Ivory Coast | 7 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | RU |
| Ecuador | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3rd |
| Curaçao | 0 | 0-0-3 | 3:11 |
Group F
| Team | Pts | W-D-L | GF:GA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 5 | 1-2-0 | 7:3 | W |
| Japan | 5 | 1-2-0 | 5:3 | RU |
| Netherlands | 5 | 1-2-0 | 5:4 | 3rd |
| Tunisia | 0 | 0-0-3 | 2:9 |
Group G
| Team | Pts | W-D-L | GF:GA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt ★ | 7 | 2-1-0 | 6:4 | W |
| Belgium | 5 | 1-2-0 | 5:4 | RU |
| Iran ★ | 2 | 0-2-1 | 3:4 | 3rd |
| New Zealand | 1 | 0-1-2 | 3:5 |
Group H
| Team | Pts | W-D-L | GF:GA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 7 | 2-1-0 | 5:3 | W |
| Uruguay | 5 | 1-2-0 | 4:2 | RU |
| Saudi Arabia | 2 | 0-2-1 | 3:4 | 3rd |
| Cape Verde | 1 | 0-1-2 | 2:5 |
Group I
| Team | Pts | W-D-L | GF:GA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 9 | 3-0-0 | 7:2 | W |
| Norway | 4 | 1-1-1 | 4:5 | RU |
| Senegal | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3rd |
| Iraq | 1 | 0-1-2 | 2:6 |
Group J
| Team | Pts | W-D-L | GF:GA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 7 | 2-1-0 | 6:4 | W |
| Algeria | 5 | 1-2-0 | 5:4 | RU |
| Jordan ★ | 2 | 0-2-1 | 4:5 | 3rd |
| Austria | 1 | 0-1-2 | 2:4 |
Group K
| Team | Pts | W-D-L | GF:GA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 9 | 3-0-0 | 6:2 | W |
| DR Congo | 2 | 0-2-1 | 3:4 | RU |
| Uzbekistan ★ | 2 | 0-2-1 | 3:4 | 3rd |
| Colombia | 2 | 0-2-1 | 2:4 |
Group L
| Team | Pts | W-D-L | GF:GA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 9 | 3-0-0 | 6:3 | W |
| Croatia | 6 | 2-0-1 | 6:3 | RU |
| Ghana | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3rd |
| Panama ★ | 0 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 |
The Spain game you would check first: Spain vs Cabo Verde, the model gives Spain 68% to win, draw 21%, Cabo Verde 11%, most likely 2-0, with Cabo Verde shut out about half the time. That is exactly the historical signature of a clear mismatch.
Show all 60 remaining group-fixture predictions
| Date | Grp | Home | Away | H/D/A | Favourite | Modal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 | G | Iran | New Zealand | 53%/27%/20% | Iran 53% | 1-0 |
| 06-15 | G | Belgium | Egypt | 43%/27%/30% | Belgium 43% | 1-1 |
| 06-15 | H | Spain | Cape Verde | 68%/21%/11% | Spain 68% | 2-0 |
| 06-15 | H | Saudi Arabia | Uruguay | 21%/28%/51% | Uruguay 51% | 0-1 |
| 06-16 | I | France | Senegal | 52%/27%/21% | France 52% | 1-0 |
| 06-16 | I | Iraq | Norway | 13%/22%/65% | Norway 65% | 0-2 |
| 06-16 | J | Argentina | Algeria | 56%/22%/22% | Argentina 56% | 1-1 |
| 06-16 | J | Austria | Jordan | 34%/32%/34% | Austria 34% | 0-0 |
| 06-17 | K | Portugal | DR Congo | 60%/25%/16% | Portugal 60% | 1-0 |
| 06-17 | K | Uzbekistan | Colombia | 23%/30%/47% | Colombia 47% | 0-1 |
| 06-17 | L | England | Croatia | 51%/25%/24% | England 51% | 1-1 |
| 06-17 | L | Ghana | Panama | 54%/27%/19% | Ghana 54% | 1-0 |
| 06-18 | A | Czechia | South Africa | 58%/25%/17% | Czechia 58% | 1-0 |
| 06-18 | A | Mexico | South Korea | 45%/26%/29% | Mexico 45% | 1-1 |
| 06-18 | B | Switzerland | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 46%/29%/25% | Switzerland 46% | 1-1 |
| 06-18 | B | Canada | Qatar | 67%/21%/12% | Canada 67% | 2-0 |
| 06-19 | C | Scotland | Morocco | 28%/30%/42% | Morocco 42% | 1-1 |
| 06-19 | C | Brazil | Haiti | 69%/20%/10% | Brazil 69% | 2-0 |
| 06-19 | D | United States | Australia | 57%/25%/18% | United States 57% | 1-0 |
| 06-19 | D | Turkey | Paraguay | 44%/27%/29% | Turkey 44% | 1-1 |
| 06-20 | E | Germany | Ivory Coast | 45%/29%/26% | Germany 45% | 1-1 |
| 06-20 | E | Ecuador | Curacao | 48%/29%/23% | Ecuador 48% | 1-0 |
| 06-20 | F | Netherlands | Sweden | 48%/28%/24% | Netherlands 48% | 1-1 |
| 06-20 | F | Tunisia | Japan | 20%/26%/54% | Japan 54% | 1-1 |
| 06-21 | G | Belgium | Iran | 45%/29%/26% | Belgium 45% | 1-1 |
| 06-21 | G | New Zealand | Egypt | 17%/22%/61% | Egypt 61% | 1-1 |
| 06-21 | H | Spain | Saudi Arabia | 66%/22%/12% | Spain 66% | 1-0 |
| 06-21 | H | Uruguay | Cape Verde | 54%/28%/18% | Uruguay 54% | 1-0 |
| 06-22 | I | France | Iraq | 80%/14%/6% | France 80% | 2-0 |
| 06-22 | I | Norway | Senegal | 35%/29%/36% | Senegal 36% | 1-1 |
| 06-22 | J | Argentina | Austria | 66%/21%/12% | Argentina 66% | 2-0 |
| 06-22 | J | Jordan | Algeria | 23%/26%/51% | Algeria 51% | 1-1 |
| 06-23 | K | Portugal | Uzbekistan | 59%/26%/15% | Portugal 59% | 1-0 |
| 06-23 | K | Colombia | DR Congo | 47%/29%/24% | Colombia 47% | 1-1 |
| 06-23 | L | England | Ghana | 63%/22%/16% | England 63% | 2-0 |
| 06-23 | L | Panama | Croatia | 13%/23%/64% | Croatia 64% | 0-1 |
| 06-24 | A | Czechia | Mexico | 31%/28%/41% | Mexico 41% | 1-1 |
| 06-24 | A | South Africa | South Korea | 17%/24%/59% | South Korea 59% | 0-1 |
| 06-24 | B | Switzerland | Canada | 40%/30%/30% | Switzerland 40% | 1-1 |
| 06-24 | B | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Qatar | 58%/25%/17% | Bosnia and Herzegovina 58% | 1-0 |
| 06-24 | C | Scotland | Brazil | 18%/26%/56% | Brazil 56% | 0-1 |
| 06-24 | C | Morocco | Haiti | 55%/26%/19% | Morocco 55% | 1-0 |
| 06-25 | D | Turkey | United States | 40%/29%/31% | Turkey 40% | 1-1 |
| 06-25 | D | Paraguay | Australia | 53%/26%/22% | Paraguay 53% | 1-1 |
| 06-25 | E | Curacao | Ivory Coast | 18%/26%/56% | Ivory Coast 56% | 0-1 |
| 06-25 | E | Ecuador | Germany | 20%/28%/51% | Germany 51% | 0-1 |
| 06-25 | F | Japan | Sweden | 43%/27%/30% | Japan 43% | 1-1 |
| 06-25 | F | Tunisia | Netherlands | 16%/26%/58% | Netherlands 58% | 0-1 |
| 06-26 | G | Egypt | Iran | 40%/28%/32% | Egypt 40% | 1-1 |
| 06-26 | G | New Zealand | Belgium | 13%/22%/64% | Belgium 64% | 0-1 |
| 06-26 | H | Cape Verde | Saudi Arabia | 32%/30%/39% | Saudi Arabia 39% | 1-1 |
| 06-26 | H | Uruguay | Spain | 23%/29%/48% | Spain 48% | 0-1 |
| 06-26 | I | Norway | France | 21%/26%/54% | France 54% | 1-1 |
| 06-26 | I | Senegal | Iraq | 65%/22%/13% | Senegal 65% | 1-0 |
| 06-27 | J | Algeria | Austria | 50%/28%/23% | Algeria 50% | 1-1 |
| 06-27 | J | Jordan | Argentina | 12%/19%/69% | Argentina 69% | 0-2 |
| 06-27 | K | Colombia | Portugal | 24%/28%/47% | Portugal 47% | 1-1 |
| 06-27 | K | DR Congo | Uzbekistan | 35%/32%/33% | DR Congo 35% | 1-1 |
| 06-27 | L | Panama | England | 7%/16%/78% | England 78% | 0-2 |
| 06-27 | L | Croatia | Ghana | 47%/27%/26% | Croatia 47% | 1-1 |
05The knockout bracket
The official 2026 bracket sends group winners, runners-up and the best thirds into a fixed Round-of-32 tree. Running the projected qualifiers through it (10-run average per tie) gives one representative path to the trophy. Shown from the Round of 16; the winner of each tie is in blue.
In this single representative run, England came through, beating France in the final. But a single bracket understates how open it is, which is why the trophy question is better answered probabilistically.
06Who wins the World Cup
To turn one bracket into odds, the entire tournament was Monte-Carlo simulated 3,000 times: every unplayed group game and every knockout tie re-drawn each run, champions counted. This propagates the real uncertainty that a single averaged bracket hides.
The most likely champion is Argentina (17.07%), in a tight top cluster with England (14.97%), France (11.8%) and Brazil (9.97%). No team is above one-in-five: this is a genuinely open tournament, and the favourites are exactly the squads EA rates highest, led by Argentina's attacking strength. Treat the single-bracket champion (England) as one plausible story inside that distribution, not a contradiction of it.
07What 96 years of World Cup history say
The tournament calibration is grounded in every men's World Cup match ever played (1930-2022, 964 games). Two facts shaped the model and one folk-belief got tested.
Scoring collapsed from the goal-fests of the 1950s (5.4 a game in 1954) to a stable ~2.6 from the 1960s onward, with no drift since. About half of all World Cup games (49% all-time, 52% in the modern era) see at least one team fail to score, which is why the engine's goal rate was tuned down to match. And the popular claim that a team finishing on zero is near-certain? It is a coin flip, not a lock, and it is the weaker team that supplies the zero: by Elo the underdog scores in only 58% of games versus 82% for the favourite, so shutouts cluster in mismatches, exactly where this model is most confident.
08Limits
The honest caveats. EA league licensing leaves several squads under-covered (Mexico, Qatar, South Africa, Curaçao, Tunisia, and others marked with a star); their missing players are filled at the team's own median rating, so their projections are softer. The engine has no information on form, injuries, or in-tournament momentum, only squad talent as EA rates it. The draw is correctly priced but never the top single pick. And the knockout coin-flip for drawn ties is a proxy for penalties, which are close to random. None of this is hidden in the numbers; it is why the trophy is given as a distribution, not a certainty.
Everything above is checkable. The backtest already is; the forward book and the bracket grade themselves over the next month.
09References & provenance
- Dixon, M. & Coles, S. (1997). Modelling Association Football Scores and Inefficiencies in the Football Betting Market. Applied Statistics 46(2).
- EAFC26 Wave 3. A Football Simulation Infrastructure. Companion methodology report.
- EA Sports FC 26 player attribute database (men's, ~16k players).
- martj42, International football results 1872-present (49,478 matches). Used for World Cup history and Elo.
- FIFA, 2026 World Cup knockout-stage bracket structure (48-team format, matches 73-104).
EAFC26 Wave 4 methodology note v1.0, June 2026. Every numeric claim traces to a CSV/JSON artefact in the project's wave4_worldcup/3_artifacts directory or to a reference above. Backtest as of 14 June 2026, 12 group games played.